Oekraine 

Oekraine landenbeleid

Beleid vastgesteld op 23 mei 2011

• ILC, bankgarantie, centrale overheidsgarantie (voorwaardelijk)
• Er is een landenplafond van 1000 mln euro van kracht
• Het signaleringsplafond is 400 mln euro
• - waarvan per 2012-02-29 223 mln euro benut is

Landenklasse: 7

Oekraine landenrapport

Atradius Dutch State Business Economic Research
Country Report last updated : 12 September 2011
Country :  UKRAINE  

Political Situation

Less Unstable

Head of state
President Viktor Yanukovich.

Form of government
Coalition of the Party of the Regions, the Communists and Lytvyn Bloc, headed by p.m. Mykola Azarov. 
 
Internal Economic Situation
Recovered From The 2009-Recession

General situation
After the deep recession of 2009 (real GDP-fall of 14.8% due to a collapse of industrial output by >20%), economic recovery in 2010 and 2011 (>4% p.a.) based on rebound of export-oriented industries and later also domestic demand. Drought negatively effected agricultural output in 2010H2. Rising inflation since 2010H2 due to higher household gas prices and the poor harvest in 2010, peaking at 11.9% June 2011. Bad corruption index (134th of 178); weak property rights and poor corporate governance with excessive state leverage. Large informal economy. The recession of 2009 has badly hit the banking sector (deposit outflow, weakened asset quality), contributing to defaults and restructurings: 24 banks (12% of sector’s assets) entered temporary administration, 5 of them recapitalised, 3 nationalised (Rodovid-, Kiev-, Ukrgazbank). IMF estimates NPL-ratio of >40%. Foreign owned banks are more stable but wary of taking more exposure.
 

External Economic Situation
High Debt Service; Imf Support Suspended

Important export-products
Steel/metals (33%), machinery and equipment (17%), agricultural products (24%).
Important markets :  EU (30%), Russia (22%), Asia (10%), other CIS (10%).
Important import-products
Fuel and energy (34%), machinery and equipment (20%).

 
Balance of payments 
Since 2009 exports have recovered strongly thanks to higher demand and global prices of steel. But because imports picked up even more, the current account deficit increased again. The capital account recovered of a very bad 2009: less capital flight, some FDI. The gasdeal with Russia has prevented acute liquidity problems of Naftogaz. Since 2010 more stable hryvnia after a strong depreciation in 2009 (48% vs US$).