Tunisia 

Tunisia country policy

Policy established 29 March 2011

• Case-by-case assessment
• The country ceiling is 1500 mln euro
• Early warning signal 1150 mln euro
• - of which was used as at 2012-02-29 0 mln euro

Country class: 3

Gegeven de veiligheidssituatie in Tunesië zullen nieuwe verzekeringsaanvragen op Tunesië met de nodige terughoudendheid in behandeling worden genomen waarbij vooral een zorgvuldige afweging van het fabricatierisico bepalend zal zijn voor de voortgang van de zaak.

Tunisia country facts

Atradius Dutch State Business Economic Research 
Country Report last updated :  8 November 2011 
Country :  TUNISIA

Political Situation
Political Challenges Ahead

Head of state
Interim President Fouad M'BAZAA (since mid January) 1987)

Form of government
Elected NCA will establish a new interim government and will elect a president.

Internal Economic Situation
Policitical Unrest Hit Economy

General situation
Political instability hit the economy in 2011. A contraction of 0.7% is expected due to declining tourism revenues and FDI, and declining domestic demand. Next year a recovery of 3.0% is expected as the social situation will stabilise. Downside risks are social unrest and also the economic situation in de Eurozone. Two-third of export is going to Europe. Inflation is estimated at 4.0% in 2011 and will decline further to 3.7% in 2012. Banking sector is rather weak, non-performing loans will increase from already high level of 13.2% of total loans at end 2009. Now that Ben Ali and his family is not longer in charge domestic private investment might expand more. 
 
External Economic Situation
Unrest Impact On External Finances

Main sources of foreign exchange
Textiles (21% of total exports), electrical equipment (16%), petroleum & derivatives (14%). Tourism and remittances.

Main foreign markets
France (25%), Italy (17%), Germany (9%) and Libya (6%).

Main expenses of foreign exchange
petroleum & products, textiles, electrical equipment.  

 
Balance of payments
Large trade deficits are partly compensated by tourism revenues and remittances. However, unrest this year resulted in high CA deficit. Normally capital flows (especially FDI) exceed CA deficits. Financial (concessional) aid will partly finance CA deficits. The dinar is pegged to a basket of currencies, of which 2/3 is composed by the euro. Rather stable exchange rate.